Operating Rates of Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip Increased MoM in December, Short-Term Production Stimulated by New Export Tax Rebate Policy [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 9:
According to SMM, the operating rate of copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises in December 2024 was 74.30%, up 0.75 percentage points MoM but down 2.15 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 78.53%, medium-sized enterprises 71.08%, and small enterprises 65.45%. In December, the operating rate of the copper plate/sheet and strip industry remained stable, with year-end copper price declines slightly stimulating end-use order growth. In terms of copper price trends, December copper prices overall declined compared to late November, fluctuating around 72,500-74,000 yuan/mt. By enterprise size, the operating rate of large enterprises increased, while medium and small enterprises remained stable. In December, the new export tax rebate policy for copper semis was implemented, and export enterprises gradually shifted to bonded processing and deep processing transfer modes. By end-use consumption, terminal orders in the electrical and electronics sectors continued to grow, while the growth rate in the new energy sector remained stable. Real estate, home decoration, and construction materials showed mediocre performance, while clothing enterprises performed relatively well. Overall, the market showed a steady recovery, with no significant changes in terminal structure.

Raw Material Inventory Ratio of Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip Enterprises in December: 15.43%

According to SMM statistics, the raw material inventory ratio of copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises in December was 15.43%, down 3.18 percentage points MoM. There were two main reasons for the decrease in inventory ratio in December. First, the year-end demand for receivables collection increased, leading to controlled inventories of both raw materials and finished products. Second, the supply of secondary copper and zinc remained tight, making raw material procurement challenging for some enterprises despite maintaining full production, resulting in an overall destocking trend. (Raw material inventory ratio = raw material inventory/monthly production).

Operating Rate of Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip Enterprises in January 2025 Expected to Be 60.64%

Looking ahead to January 2025, according to SMM, the operating rate of the copper plate/sheet and strip market is expected to decline significantly. The main reason is the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, which will lead to a gradual weakening of terminal orders before the holiday. It is reported that most copper plate/sheet and strip factories will stop taking orders about a week before the holiday, with production workshops taking an average holiday of 5-7 days. Additionally, the issue of tight raw material supply for copper alloy plate/sheet and strip persists, and procurement pressure may hinder production turnover. In January, the operating rate of large copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises is expected to decline significantly, while the impact on some medium and small enterprises rushing to deliver orders will be relatively smaller. The operating rate of copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises in January is expected to be 60.64%, down 13.66 percentage points MoM.